Mike Randle, Editor

Predictions for 2004 and More

In a dozen years, I have never used this space to predict what will occur in an upcoming new year. Yet, 2004 is as critical of a year as I have ever remembered a new year being. This new year is incredibly important for this nation's economy, its political reputation on the world stage and for the men and women who are fighting a war in Iraq. It is also a national election year. Let's not delay with grovel banter and go straight to the predictions.

No. 1: President Bush's reelection is too close to call. President Bush's determination, grit and unwavering resolve is to be respected. Yet, there have been so many blunders, misstatements, reckless actions and arrogance from this administration to fill 10 presidential terms. Much of the nation calls Bush their hero, while much of it is already done with the guy. At this point, Bush will either win the 2004 presidential election by a whisker, or he will lose it by the same measure. But that could easily change to a landslide Bush victory or a solid eight-point win for the Democratic candidate. It's just too early, but right now it looks too close to call.

No. 2: Iraq war will not end in 2004. When you are bogged down, you are bogged down. Bush and his senior leadership realize full well what they are into now. They had no clue in the beginning. Case in point: Rumsfield's statement in the spring quarter that the Iraqi people will basically parade the Americans once Saddam is out of power and Iraq is "set free." The only parading I've seen from the Iraqis is when one of our guys gets killed. The Bush administration knows that if the U.S. left Iraq now, or certainly anytime during 2004, the country would immediately immerse itself into civil war. The political implications for President Bush would be huge if that occurred. Bush went in to Iraq to destroy weapons of mass destruction. He went in because of suspected ties to radical Muslim terrorism. He went in to free Iraq and point it toward democracy. And finally, Bush went into Iraq because "Iraq remains a threat to the American people." Well, that last statement is the only one to ring true to date. When Americans are in Iraq holding rifles, they are threatened by Iraqis. If the U.S. left anytime in 2004, none of what the Bush administration wanted to accomplish in Iraq would be accomplished. No, we're staying for a while. It's a stick-in-the-mud deal for now.

No. 3: Manufacturing jobs will increase greatly in 2004 in the South and Midwest, but only slightly in the West and Northeast. The economy is improving and it's about time. Manufacturing jobs will increase in the places in the U.S. where operating costs are favorable. The two most cost effective places to make things in this country are in the South and parts of the Midwest. Those two regions will lead the job making rise in the manufacturing sector. Those who predicted manufacturing is a dead economic animal in this country are wrong. Manufacturing will have a great year in 2004.

No. 4: There will not be a new automotive assembly plant announced in the South in 2004. With our launch of www.SouthernAutoCorridor.com in January of 2004, we have researched and written about this incredibly fast growing Southern industry so much that we have developed a tic. In other words, we know it and we know it well, even though we currently have a hurling response everytime we write about it. Unless foreign automakers such as Audi or Mitsubishi grow big cohoneys and invest somewhere in the South (or Volvo's 25-year Southern site search actually happens), 2004 will not see a new auto assembly plant anywhere in the South. But expect new plants in the South in 2005 or 2006 from two Japanese automakers, maybe one German and possibly one Korean. There's a 50/50 chance that in 2005 or 2006 a domestic automaker will announce a new plant in Texas, but it won't break ground until after UAW negotiations have been resolved in 2007.

No. 5: After dominating the South's economy for most of the 1990s, then wimping out in a big way from 1999 to 2002, Texas says "enough is enough!" Expect the South's largest state to dominate deals made in the South once again in 2004.

Other 2004 state predictions in the South in brief: Georgia will be driven by another Atlanta job surge, but this time the rest of the state will see solid job gains as well. Louisiana will turn some huge oil, gas and chemical deals. South Carolina will lure a major biotech deal, one that is real. West Virginia will continue to lure companies from Pennsylvania. The Virginia Economic Development Partnership, the most savvy state marketer in the South, will succumb to its marketing addiction and lift its "going dark" advertising decision in 2004. Alabama will sit back and watch more automotive suppliers come in, but is finished writing checks for assembly plants for now. Mississippi wants another auto assembly plant, but they won't write the check in 2004. Arkansas will write the check for one in 2004, but there won't be one to write the check to until 2005. North Carolina will experience its best job generating year in five years in 2004 and much of it will come from manufacturing. Florida will see good job generation, but no better than the last two years. Oklahoma will see aviation jobs increase as will Kansas. Kentucky will continue to see its rural regions grow, a rarity in the South. Maryland will benefit from federally funded homeland security deals. Missouri will remain more involved in the retention of industry (and it's doing a good job in that "different" arena) in 2004 than in garnering new industry. And finally, in 2004, Tennessee will see only its second major decline in big job and investment deals since 1997.